Jo, jeg er igang med en ny bog.
Det er planen at jeg vil lægge teksten ud efterhånden som den begynder at være sammenhængende nok til at andre, forhåbentlig, kan forstå meningen. Hvis du er interesseret i at læse den foreløbige, og altså noget rå og formentlig fejlbehæftede, version, er du meget velkommen. I kapiteloversigten kan du klikke dig frem til de kapitler, der har fået den første gennemskrivning.
Herunder kan se se min disposition, der viser indholdet af hele bogen i stikordsform.
Spilleregler for det 21. Århundrede
- hvad man skal kunne for at klare sig i en komplex økonomi
General intro
Powerzones of convergence
Integration of products and services
Personalization
Faster change
Dependency on a larger system
Paradigm shift - from industrial logic, infinite resources
Vector, not an absolute shift
Trajectory: hi-res, realtime, networked, stored
Connected
Sammenkobling - tidens pil
Science connects knowledge
Globalisering: connecting ideas
Evolutionary advantage of connectivity
Info-box: Examples of increasing connectivity:
Acceleration as a (very) long term trend
Connecting scientists speeds up development
Faktabox: Living under the spell of Moore's law
Exponential technology development examples
Sammensatte produkter og tjenester
Integrated devices create new opportunities
Convergence of sciences - NBIC
Individuality
Moving beyond industrialism
Avoiding commoditization
Individualism
Mass costumization
Personalized in realtime
Demands for individual solutions - is it real?
Info-box: 3D printing
Complexity for free
Biotech individuality
Participation
We are all becoming participants
Self service
Democratization of the means of production
Born Global: Det globale maskineri står til rådighed
We media viser vejen
From intimate to worldwide
Long tail
Infinite shelf space
Niche markets, mass production tools
Heads and tails
The motivation is different in either end
Product to process
Wikipedia is a process
Context is king
From finished product to tools for co-creation
From transaction to interaction
What is a complex, adaptive, dynamic system
Infobox
Kompleksitets- teori
Nonlinear development, sudden jumps
Small perturbation, large effect
A small failure cascades and scales
Technological tipping points
Crucial details in the initial design
Extreme vulnerability of connected systems
Democratizing terror
The importance of diversity
Feedback mechanisms
Positivt feedback
Network effects, power laws
Negativt feedback
Lag-time, forsinkelse af signalet
Acceleration - Sequential to parallel
Digital tech accelerates interaction
Feedback - a general skill
Omstændighederne kræver en kompleksitets ”linse”
Dynamisk:
Holistisk
Integrated and interacting
Patterns
Interaction leads to emergence
Second order effects
Relations in focus
Emergens på tværs af discipliner
Newtons paradgme
Participation as interaction accelerates
Redskaber til at håndtere kompleksitet
Snæversynets faldgruber
IQ og biologi skal forstås som sammenhængende systemer
Penge = værdi, man får hvad man måler
Politics are global
Adaption - evolution - systemet forandres
Divine co-evolution
Skills for a complex reality
Fra specifik til statistisk niveau
We change tech, then it changes us
Open innovation
How Lego learned open innovation
Open innovation
IBMs satsning på åbenhed
Pro-sumerism - forbrugerne er eksperterne
Myten om at kunne selv
Fra stand alone til sammenhængende kreativitet
Virksomheder kan heller ikke alene
N=1 forudsætter R=G
Det sammensatte vinder relativt, different deal
From atoms to bits changes the game
Friction free exchange, forsvindende transaktionskomkostninger
Rival goods bliver en mindre del af økonomien
Eksklusivitet
Network effects
Web 2.0
Tagging - fælles meningsdannelse
Easier to form groups
Open for small contributions - birds' nest
A range, from atoms to bits
Global consciousness
Me/we - interdependence
Enhver var sig selv nærmest
Independence is over
Nulsum eller plussum spil
Cooperation as an evolutionary advantage
Faseskift: Mankind grows into one - med tiden
Unsocial sociability, beneficial self-interest
Letting go - giv slip
Sharing is real already
Secrecy - a waste of potential
Instinktiv lukkethed
A systematic bias against openness
Me or we thinking
The tragedy of the anticommons
Architecture of sharing
Organizational bias - architecture/code
Get the ball rolling
Prisoner's dilemma: The setup
Kan det betale sig at samarbejde
Iterated changes everything
Tit for tat
Tit for tat strategy as a skill/mindset
Dare trust
Modet til at åbne op
Trust is a precondition
So easy to destroy trust
Reputation, shadow of the future
Architecture of accountability
Evolution
Organisationer går i hak
Ongoing, continued - open to change
Skill: Adaptive to evolution
The red queen race
Local maximum
Beware of the s-curve:
Crummy is better than nothing
Competing against non-consumption,
Megacity - Darwinism
Probability vs. Certainty
Total portfolio makeover
Variation, the raw material of evolution
Fast, affordable failures
Skill: Lifelong curiosity and adaptability:
Certainty to probability
Uncertainty is normal
Probability rather than certainty
Wildcards and black swans
Technology out of control
Gevinsten ved at slippe kontrollen
Skill: trust uncertainty
Risk assessment
Anti-kompeksitets politik
Forsigtighed har en pris
Klimaet er svært at reagere på før det er for sent
Faren ved forsigtighedsprincippet
Scenarier; systematisering af usikkerheder
The necessity of failures
Accountability
My data is your data
Actor on an unknown stage
Digital lack of decay
Who gets to interpret the data?
We have suspended our sense of interdependence
Interdependence and connectivity is for real
Convenience hides necessity
Externalities vs. True prices
Externalities are costs in a different dimension
De sidste der bliver ramt, er dem der bruger mest
Løsning: Synliggørelse
Make it visual
Privacy
Overvågningens dilemma
Reciprocity
transparency vs. Surveillance
Surveilling to manipulate
Anonymity is over
Your digital persona - the social graph
Shattering our useful myths
Get over it - we're all exposed
Facebook publicity
Cloud computing - et spørgmål om kategorisering
Managing presence
Clash of dimensions
Tragedy of the commons
Summen af rationale beslutninger er irrationel
Vi konkurrerer hinanden ned i helvede
Automatiseret varetagelse af interesser
Inertia - negative feedback - homeostasis
Reasons for inertia
Active apathy
Gode grunde til at rage til sig
So much information - so little action
Det snævre og det brede perspektiv
Contingent citizenship
Shorter distance from egoism to altruism
Interdependence
Global issues - global governance
The funnel
Big here, long now
Global awareness
A bigger picture
Transparency in order to see what you are doing
Skill: holistic perspective
An uneasy community
Individual vs. Communal interest
Not your preferred direction
Where do you draw the circle of inclusion
Shortcomings of socialism
CSR - behave like one of us
Socialisme 2.0
Governance
Freedom and responsibility
The fall - no choice but to choose
Network vs. hierarchy
Industrial skills
Creative imperative:
The many meanings of creativity
Creativity 2.0 - co-creation
Gradbøjning af deltagelse
Assume Responsibility
Større mangfoldighed - større ensarthed
Ranking mekanismen giver alle mere af det samme
Mediernes selvsving
Loose, adhoc politics
Mob politics
Smart Mobs
Dumb mobs
Loose, adhoc politik med blind makket
Mobs kan ikke formulere en vision
Når markedet kommer til kort
Hierarchy vs. Network
Hvornår er hiearki en fordel
Leadership in two flavors
Løsere tilhørsforhold
Participants recruit themselves
Different types of power:
Wiki-governance
Power, given or taken
Give and you shall be given
Both sides have to adjust the power-relation
Zones - Merging categories of cooperation
Assume responsibility
Skill: Communication in several ways
Motivation, making a difference
We all feel like managers
Command doesn't stimulate initiative
Leadership skills - the list:
Less command and control
Complex context demand clear visions
Storytelling:
A shared vision is a precondition
The other singularity - environmental collapse
The power of vision
The gap in imagination
Den organiserende historie
The hollow centre, the minimal leader
Leadership is storytelling
Continuos partial attention
The elements of a narrative
Winner takes All
Giant global platforms
Både flere deltagere og større koordinatorer
Winner takes all - ensartethed
Modargumentet: individuality
The enablers provide a platform for participation
Free
Platforms grow larger and larger
Hastigere udskiftning
Mindre kontrol for at tiltrække mere aktivitet
Wired world, Merging of real and virtual
Here/there
The One Machine
The Cloud
Mobile phones and Internet
The force: sensing, processing, and communicating
The bridge, the connector to the network
RFID
Sensor nets
GPS - location awareness
Managing presence
Info-box: spimes
Mit liv som spime
Intelligente miljøer
Online and offline merges
Magisk monokol og the Metaverse
Merging with the machine
Vores ny natur - Humans and technology merge
Evolution has changed medium
Info-box: the singularity
Biological evolution is slow
Skills for the 21st. Century
Future fitness landscape - a new reality
Facing disaster
Omrids af en løsning
Kulturel tilpasning
Kode, tyngdekraft, default
Det gamle og uhensigtsmæssige
Socialized to industrialism
The Network mindset
Skill: thinking in terms of complexity
Embracing diversity
Kan det læres?
Being human
Elements of a design for emergence
The way we live
Er det virkelig alvor?
Mental leapfrogging
Faststøbte paradigmer
Oppustet livsstil
Gode grunde til at rage til sig
Forbrug er magt
Max life - The way we live
Stay home
Det er en ubekvem sandhed
Det moderne menneske som kronen på værket
Mere godt, ikke mindre dårligt
The meaning is immaterial
Vi må videre
Buddhism or progress
Wealth = opportunity
Ending remarks
Humanity
Polarization tearing the social fabric
The health divide
Unequal access to technology
Can you learn to handle complexity?
Velfærdsstaten tipper
Complexity backlash
Skill: Empathy and love
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